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Analyst: Seungyun Nam, Stony Brook University Research Assistant: Daoqi Fang, Stony Brook University
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Did you miss Tesla and Nvidia? Here’s the next chance.
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Joby Aviation presents a compelling investment opportunity as a leader in the rapidly growing Urban Air Mobility (UAM) and eVTOL sectors. With $894 million in backing from Toyota, including expertise in mass production, Joby is well-positioned for long-term success. The company’s recent milestone of becoming the first eVTOL firm to reach the third stage of FAA certification signals strong progress toward commercializing its aircraft by 2025.
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September's jobs report added 254,000 payrolls, far exceeding expectations and boosting confidence in a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy. This strong labor market reduces the likelihood of aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts, with smaller quarter-point adjustments now expected. Although job growth was concentrated in sectors like food services and government, the overall economic outlook remains positive. Some analysts question whether the Fed's earlier rate cut was necessary, given the strong data. The Fed now has time to assess its next move, with the economy and labor market showing resilience.
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Stocks surged on Friday following a stronger-than-expected jobs report, which boosted investor confidence in the U.S. economy. The S&P 500 rose 0.9%, the Nasdaq gained 1.22%, and the Dow Jones hit an all-time high, adding 341.16 points. Strong job growth of 254,000 and a lower-than-expected unemployment rate of 4.1% fueled optimism for a soft economic landing. Tech giants like Tesla, Amazon, and Netflix led the Nasdaq’s gains, while financials were the top-performing sector in the S&P 500. Meanwhile, oil prices rose amid Middle East tensions, pushing energy stocks up 7% for their best week since October 2022.
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Altcoins, particularly AI-focused tokens like Bittensor (TAO) and Render (RNDR), surged on Friday following a strong U.S. jobs report, which alleviated recession fears. Bittensor's TAO rose 14%, and Grayscale increased its allocation of TAO in its AI-focused fund from 3% to 27%. Bitcoin climbed to $62,300, with altcoins outperforming BTC, as the CoinDesk 20 Index rose 4.2%. Positive labor market data and expectations of a smaller Federal Reserve interest rate cut boosted sentiment across both crypto and stock markets. Analysts predict further gains for crypto as the U.S. economy remains strong, despite recent geopolitical tensions.
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JPMorgan predicts that geopolitical tensions and the upcoming U.S. presidential election will support the "debasement trade," benefiting both bitcoin and gold. A Trump victory, in particular, could strengthen this trend through tariffs and expansionary fiscal policies, which contribute to "debt debasement." Currently, markets are not heavily pricing in a Trump win, as investors have been more focused on recession concerns. If the "Trump trade" plays out similarly to 2016, it could lead to higher Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, stock market gains, and tighter credit spreads, especially benefiting banks. However, Standard Chartered cautions that Bitcoin is not a reliable safe haven against geopolitical risks.
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Thanks to our members and volunteers (Seungyun Nam, Rishi Jain and Daoqi Fang) for contributions to this newsletter. To share information or research with the community, submit it through "Share" below. We will include it if the content is deemed appropriate. Support our efforts to make free and useful financial education content by donating to @stonyfinlab via Venmo!
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Stony Finance Lab is a community-based finance network that aims to promote personal financial responsibility and helps the community to achieve financial confidence and financial independence through life-long learning. The emails are to distribute news and information on finance research, events, jobs related to personal finance, investments of financial and digital assets, academic finance, and entrepreneurship. All emails are for information sharing only and shall not be deemed as financial advice. The Lab is not liable for the consequence of using any information contained in the emails.
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